Anyone who doesn’t follow the Oscars or film awards closely doesn’t know–this isn’t one award show–but the final in a season. It’s the World Series. The NBA Finals. The culmination of campaigning and hard work far beyond just the initial performance.
So front-runners today may not be when the Oscar is handed out in the next month. But for now, here’s my snap judgements on who takes home the Gold February 27.
Best Original Screenplay: The King’s Speech
The Academy works in some pretty obvious ways. The screenplay and picture race often, though not always, work out in tandem. And since “The King’s Speech” is one of two front-runners for Best Picture, it’s a lock to win this award.
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Aaron Sorkin has had a place cleared on his shelf for this award for months; there’s no shot he doesn’t take it home.
Best Supporting Actress: Helena Bonham Carter
Amy Adams and Melissa Leo have been front-runners for this award, and Leo took home the Golden Globe. But Carter will ride the “King’s Speech” wave to win this won, her first in an illustrious career.
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
Bale, long considered an A-list actor, will take home the gold on his first nomination. The only true competition he may see is from Geoffrey Rush of “The King’s Speech.”
Best Actress: Natalie Portman
Likely the least secure award, Portman faces stiff competition from Benning and Academy-favorite Nicole Kidman. But at this moment, it’s Portman’s to lose.
Best Actor: Colin Firth
Firth is solidly the front-runner for this award, after dominating critics awards for several months. The only hiccup could be Javier Bardem’s surprise nomination, and his support from some big sources (Julia Roberts), which could allow him to steal the award for “Biutiful.”
Best Director: David Fincher
“The Social Network” was one of the years most poignant and beautifully prodcued films, on multiple levels, from writing, acting, score, all the way to director. In terms of this film’s production, Fincher will just be another cog in its sweep, leading to the ultimate…
Best Picture: The Social Network
Fincher and Sorkin have produced a masterpiece, which some say will be a defining film of our generation. Though “The King’s Speech” could compete for this award, there is little chance it takes it, a’la “Crash.”