The middle of October is a strange time for the box office. It’s after the summer hangover which depresses the box office for several weeks (September to early October) but just before the awards season and the winter blockbusters begin to roll out. Still, this weekend should pack a strong 1-2 punch with the third installment in the Jackass franchise, and the big-screen adaptation or the graphic novel “RED.” Weekend estimates based on Friday’s box office numbers will be posted Saturday!
The Jackass franchise is getting a little long in the tooth, but it still has a loyal fanbase, which drove a $22 million opening weekend for the first installment, and a $29 million entry for the second. Expect less of a turnout for this week, only marginally, but the gross should be driven up by the higher price of admission 3-D commands. Of course, if the core fanbase has moved on, this sequel could fall into the lower-$20 million range.
2. RED: $20 million
Give or take a few million on this one, $18-22; this film has a limited built-in base compared to other graphic novel adaptations, but it still has a lot going for it. The trailers make the film to look well, and it’s receiving a good critical average over at Rotten Tomatoes. Combined with a stellar cast, of which Freeman and Willis will engender the most good will, this could be a solid hit across all four quadrants, and has the potential to break out into the high $20s.
3. The Social Network: $10 million
Now in it’s third week of release, this critically acclaimed “facebook movie” debuted to a somewhat underwhelming $23 million, but dropped a scant 35% last weekend. It’s showing all the holding power of a crossover hit, so expect another small decline as people slowly find this one.
4. Life as We Know It: $8 Million
Generated a moderate amount of decent looks from audiences, expect a smaller-than-moderate decline this week.
5. Secretariat: $7.5 million
If Disney was hoping this would be an Oscar contender well the audience isn’t responding that way. Too many people are likening this to a “Seabiscuit” re-run without giving it a chance; this film seemed to stall out of the gate.
Check back Saturday morning for early weekend numbers!
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