Barack Obama will win tonight with at least 53 percent of the popular vote, making him the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win a majority.
Here are all of the polls released yesterday, the last day that the major polling firms collected data. Obama’s aggragate average is approaching 52%, but I believe these polls under report the youth vote because of they generally don’t call cell phones, and we will probably see a disproportionate amount of the African-American vote judging by the early vote counts in many states.
We will have to look out for the Bradley Effect, which may or may not be a myth. Even if it’s true, I have a feeling it might be off se by the Reverse Bradley Effect. Paraphrasing Bill Maher, the Reverse Bradley Effect theorizes the pseudo racists are telling their buddies down at the Moose Lodge they’re voting for McCain, but when they get in the voting booth they might start thinking, “Hmm, well my kids teeth are falling out… and Obama is the only one that will give me health care. Maybe I will vote for the black guy.”
As far as the electoral college, Obama should get 338+ electoral votes, putting him well over the 270 needed to win. He will almost definitely flip Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, and Iowa from Red States to Blue, and I think he squeak out Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, as well. Missouri and Indiana will be tough but if either fall for Obama, it will be over by 9 o’clock.
If McCain has any chance, he absolutely needs Pennsylvania. The east coast bellweather state is one of the first to close their polls, so if it is called early for Obama, it will be a good indicater of how the night could turn out. If Obama’s lead is 8 to 10 points and its over shortly after the polls close, then there will be no need to sweat. Barack Obama will be the President Elect. If we are still wondering who won Pennsylvania after a few hours, it might be a long night.
Check out CNN’s interactive map and make you’re own predictions.
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