March Madness Preview

March is easily one of the best months of the year.

Few things in sports, if any, can measure up to what the NCAA Tournament brings us. The only things that are close are the conference tournaments the weekend before the Tournament begins. This year, we got to kick off the month of March by watching Coach K win his 800th game by pulling one out of his back pocket to steal a win.

We were also served up a great win for Georgetown in overtime at Marquette. We saw Texas lose to bubble team Texas Tech, keeping the Red Raiders’ hopes alive for the dance. Arkansas did the same in upsetting Vanderbilt, virtually locking them into the Tournament. In all, six ranked teams lost on the first of March.

Settle in people, it’s going to get even better next weekend.

This is when you need to be paying attention to college basketball, if you want any chance at winning your pool this year. The next two weeks will tell us who will make it all the way to San Antonio, and who will be ending their season early. And in the process, we are going to get to see some of the best basketball games of the year. Here is a quick rundown of the major conferences, who I think will win their tournaments, and who I think could be headed to the big dance:

ACC

North Carolina is once again the favorite to cut down the nets in Charlotte, and also to do so in San Antonio. The Tar Heels are getting their starting point guard Tywon Lawson back just in time, not to mention national Player of the Year candidate Tyler Hansbrough. The Heels are stacked and ready to make a run deep into the Tournament. Look for UNC to win the ACC Tournament and never look back.

Duke is also a threat to cut some cotton this year, as Coach K has built another strong team. Duke will only go as far as their shooters will take them, as they lack any real inside presence. Problem is, they don’t seem to go cold very often. Look for the Blue Devils to do well in late March.

No other ACC teams are a threat to get to San Antonio. When the official brackets are announced, I expect six teams from the ACC to be called: UNC, Duke, Clemson, Maryland, Virginia Tech, & Miami.

Big East

Georgetown was the early favorite in the Big East, and here on March 2nd they are tied in the loss column with Louisville (who has a game in hand). Georgetown is indeed a threat to make it all the way to San Antonio, but I have a hunch they won’t make it that far. I see them losing in the Regional Finals, however, and depending on their draw they could certainly make the Final Four. How they play in the Big East tournament will determine whether or not they make it to the Alamo.

Louisville is the other team playing for the regular season championship in the Big East. The Cardinals have not lost in over a month now, and are a serious threat to make it to San Antonio. Rick Pitino is proving why he is the best coach in college basketball, and has his team playing as well as anyone in the country. The Cardinals could easily be the last team standing in the Big East Tournament and given the right draw, Louisville could be cutting down the nets in Texas too.

The Huskies of Connecticut have seemingly come out of nowhere to become one of the best teams in the country. All they have been this year is steady, and none of their six losses were to bad teams. While I don’t think they can make a run at the Final Four, they are certainly a dangerous team to watch. I wouldn’t want to see my favorite team in their bracket right now, as UCONN has won twelve of its last thirteen games. Sophomore center Hasheem Thabeet uses his 7"3" frame to his advantage, as he blocks an average of 4.4 shots per game. The big guy can score too, averaging 10.2 points per game. Problem is he can disappear completely in some games, and that’s why I don’t think the Huskies will make it past the second weekend.

While they aren’t threats to go deep in the dance, Notre Dame, Marquette, Pittsburgh and West Virginia have all punched their tickets already. Cincinnati needs only beat Depaul on Thursday to do the same. Villanova has a shot to join them, which would make it an astounding nine teams from the Big East to go dancing.

Big-Ten

Wisconsin and Purdue are battling it out to see who will get the automatic bid and a likely two seed in the NCAA. While both teams are good, quality basketball teams, I don’t see either team as a serious threat to make the Final Four. Wisconsin should win the automatic bid, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Purdue take it either. Both of these teams could make a Regional Final, as could Indiana, but don’t expect to see the Big Ten represented in San Antonio.

Indiana does have Eric Gordon though, and everyone needs to see this kid play at least once. Gordon is the kind of player who could get hot and cause magical things to happen for his team. He’s that good. Problem is, with all of the turmoil surrounding the Hoosier’s program right now, I just can not see them making it past the Sweet Sixteen.

Michigan State will also be going to the Tournament this year. The question is how many other Big Ten teams will get called? I could easily see both Minnesota and Ohio State making the dance, but Ohio State has a tough slate ahead to make that happen. Both teams sit at 8-8 in the league with two games to go. If they split those games, they will be in the NCAA’s.

SEC

The SEC really only has one legitimate candidate to make the Final Four this year. Bruce Pearl has his Volunteers playing as well as anyone in the country. Despite losing at Vanderbilt this past week, Tennessee is a serious threat to make it to San Antonio. Chris Lofton leads a guard-heavy scoring attack that averages 82.8 points per game. While I don’t see the Vols cutting down the nets in San Antonio, I would not be surprised to see them there with a chance.

No other SEC teams appear to be serious threats to make the Final Four. Up to as many as six teams could be dancing, though. Mississippi State, Kentucky and Vanderbilt have all punched their tickets to join Tennessee in the Tournament. Florida and Arkansas both have a shot at joining them, with Arkansas having the best shot based on remaining games. I expect they will both make it, but if Florida loses out they will be very nervous on Selection Sunday.

Big-12

Kansas and Texas are still fighting to be the best team in the Big 12. The two teams have only played once this season, and won’t meet again unless it’s in the Big 12 tournament. Texas won that first match up, by the way. Head coach Rick Barnes has the Longhorns playing well, and they are a threat to make it to San Antonio this year. They are also good enough to win once they get there. D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams make up one of the best backcourts in the country, and guard play is the most important factor in the Tourney.

Kansas could also make it to San Antonio if given the right draw. The Jayhawks are extremely well balanced, and are playing good basketball right now. They aren’t playing great, though, and they are going to have to kick it up a notch if they want to make it past the second weekend of the dance.

No other Big 12 teams are a threat to make it to the Final Four. After Texas wins out, and gets the automatic bid and possible #1 seed, I see five other teams making the tournament. Baylor, Kansas State and Texas A&M have all pretty much punched their tickets already, and Oklahoma is likely to join them. Be glad that Kansas State will make it, because it means more Michael Beasley for us. If you have not seen Beasley play this year, you are truly missing out on one of the best seasons in a long time. The freshman forward scores at will (26.7 ppg), and cleans the glass (12.6 rpg) with amazing power. So do yourself a favor and watch the two games he will get to play in before heading off to the NBA.

PAC-10

UCLA has regained its past glory and is a serious contender to make waves in San Antonio. Freshman center Kevin Love leads a pretty well-balanced scoring attack that has four players averaging more than twelve points per game. Head coach Ben Howland has the Bruins playing as well as anyone in the country, and it’s a treat that we’ll get to see them face off against Stanford on Thursday. Look for UCLA to win that game as well as make it all the way to the Final Four.

Stanford is also a legitimate contender for the Final Four. They have quietly gone 24–4 this year and with twin brothers, who happen to both be seven-feet tall, Brook and Robin Lopez, they have a post-heavy attack that could carry them to San Antonio. The story of the twins will be compelling and they will be fun to watch.

Washington State and USC are in. Herb Sendek’s Arizona State Sun Devils should be in later in the week as well. Arizona could also finish at 9–9 in the conference, so we will see what the committee does with them. If they get the nod, that would be six PAC-10 teams in the tourney.

The only other team that could make the Final Four is Memphis. Freshman point guard Derrick Rose is a special, special player. A lot of people will discount the Tigers because they play in Conference USA, but don’t be fooled. They played the second toughest out-of-conference schedule this year (according to the RPI), and Conference USA isn’t the cakewalk it used to be. It’s still easy for a team of Memphis’ caliber, mind you, but it is improved. Memphis has only lost one game this year and I don’t think they will lose another unless they meet UNC in the Tournament.

With only 34 at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament up for grabs, and there being 34 bubble teams covered here, they all had better play like they aren’t in the dance as of yet. It only makes sense that some of these bids are going to be lost to mid-majors, and each one that does knocks one of the power conference teams out. Keep in mind as well that some of these mid-major conferences are good too. The Atlantic-10 alone could steal two or three bids.

When it’s all said and done, look for UNC, Texas, UCLA and Memphis to all make it to the third and final weekend of March Madness. Then look for Roy Williams to bring home another banner to hand in the Dean Dome.