Blast Magazine» Elections

Silver lining for Republicans?

Michael Corcoran — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 20:05:08 +0000

Barack Obama’s blowout victory over John McCain may come as a disappointment for Republicans, but it certainly comes as no surprise.

Joe Trippi, who managed Howard Dean’s campaign in 2004 and John Edwards in 2008, made an astute observation on C-SPAN the other day when he suggested that GOP operatives knew damn well that John McCain would lose the general election, and crafted a strategy to cope with this inevitability.

The theory, Trippi explained, is that Republicans went on the attack “" calling Obama a socialist, a terrorist sympathizer, an enemy of Israel and a baby killer “" not to appease independents in swing states, but rather, to energize the right-wing conservative base in the hopes that they would vote GOP down the ticket, and prevent possible Democratic takeovers in hotly-contested Senate races. The race was over and they were trying to cut legislative losses, so to speak.

“They were not using swing-state language” Trippi said.

And, it appears the strategy may have paid off. Republican Sen. Ted Stevens is up in Alaska , despite his fraud convictions last week; Sen. Norm Coleman is beating Democrat Al Franken in Minnesota (in a race that may be decided in a recount); Gordon Smith may hold on to Oregon and Saxby Chambliss may hold Georgia.

These were closes races, but a week ago Coleman, Smith and Stevens were all behind in the polls.

Make no mistake, this elections stands as a clear and unambiguous rejection of the GOP. But the sinister attacks that came from a desperate campaign, may have kept the Democrats from expanding the senate even further.

The World is Watching

Michael Corcoran — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 22:22:51 +0000

The world is indeed watching today.

Despite the United States recent economic woes, there is no doubt amongst serious observers that the country is still, by far the most powerful nation in the world. The United States military budget “" which, I think it is fair to say, gets quite a bit of use “" is astronomical. The U.S. accounts almost half of the world’s military spending, with the FY 2009 budget allocating more than $650 billion. To put this in perspective, the next highest spender is the United Kingdom with just over $50 billion. And the U.S. figures do not count the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan which are paid for with supplemental bills and have cost the nation hundreds of billions more over the last five years.

Further, the world economy, for better or worse (worse is the popular answer in 2008), is directly dependent on the U.S economy. Even though China, for example, continues to grow, they are only able to do so by sending 80 percent of their exports to the U.S. Now, as American consumers are becoming thrifty, or broke (or both), Chinese growth is in trouble.

Russia “" China’s partner in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which many see as a blossoming counter to the US and NATO “" is now losing out on all the revenues that they were getting from $147 barrels of oil. And this drop in oil occurred, at least in part, due to the massive deflation that has occurred since the US economy really hit the skids in September. Venezuela and Iran, two other oil-rich nations with hostile relations with the U.S, are facing the same problems as oil prices go down.

So why is this relevant to the 2008 election? It is a reminder of how important this election, and American policy in general, is to other parts of the world.

In Israel, for example, the right has expressed fears over an Obama presidency. While Obama has said all of the right things, and spoke in front of AIPAC when he finally won the primary, some in Israel are not sure he will be 1) as aggressive on Iran as a McCain or Bush Administration or 2) as willing to continue America’s unconditional (and totally unique) package in aid, which is at $3 billion, the most in the world. This is why the right started singing the “Obama-is-anti-Israel” tune when McCain fell sharply behind (as did Hillary Clinton when she was gasping for anything at the tail end of the divisive primary, which gives you a sense of how predictably low politicians can go when in trouble).

It is a fairly empty tale. Obama has toed the Party line with Israel, pledging continued and increased aid, and insisting that Iran poses a grave threat, despite the fact that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has said the opposite.

Nonetheless, this election is watched with great interest from the Israeli right. To follow the coverage in Israel, I recommend, Haaretz, which is widely viewed as the “New York Times of Israel.”

Another country that must be watching with watchful eyes in Pakistan, especially given Obama’s expressed a willingness to bomb the country (which President Bush actually did recently).

Interestingly, Iraqis and U.S. soldiers may have less at stake that one might think. While Obama ran in the primary with anti-war rhetoric , his staff has acknowledged to the Wall Street Journal that he will leave around 35 “" 45 thousands troops in the country. Given that a similar draw down is likely under a McCain Administration (though the exact timeline could vary), it appears that the War in Iraq will continue in a lesser fashion, no matter who wins. Still, if anyone wants to read an English language Iraqi newspaper, visit Azzaman in English.

Iranians, too, must be watching with great interest. While both McCain and Obama are willing to talk tough on Iran, Obama has a far more moderate (supported by many Republicans from the Bush I days, such as James Baker and Collin Powell) and reasonable stance on engaging in diplomacy. To read Iranian media visit Press TV and the Islamic Republic News Agency (both state-owned, for what its worth).

And of course, every country has a stake in the U.S. economy. As I listed above, the ramifications of the economic crisis are indeed global, and countries have been scrambling with bailout and stimulus packages, request for aid from the (US controlled) International Monetary Fund and the nationalizing of some banks.

Here, world public opinion is clear: Obama is the favorite for most of the world, which has grown deeply skeptical of U.S. economic policies, and gives most of the blame to Republicans.

Some other foreign news outlets:

The Daily Star (Lebanon)

Russia Today (Russia)

The Independent (United Kingdom)

Dar al Hayet (Saudi Arabia )

Long lines, long odds

Michael Corcoran — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 20:48:56 +0000

Long lines reported already

*Reports of painfully long lines are already coming in. With record turnout expected, long lines are inevitable. But The New York Times is reporting of excessively long lines in Virginia and Pennsylvania.

From the Times:

By noon on Tuesday some precincts in Chester County, Pa., were reporting that up to half of their registered voters had already cast ballots, said Agnes L. O’Toole, the county’s deputy director of voter services. She said that voters waited in lines that lasted up to two hours. “This is above and beyond an anomaly” Ms. O’Toole said. “Our phones are off the wall.”

Also, The Times reported that even lines for early voting were excessively long in places like Kansas City and Atlanta yesterday. And things have not gotten better in KC today, according to the Associated Press.

Voters in some Kansas City precincts had to spend extra time in already long lines this morning because poll workers were given the wrong voter registration books.

Voters at All Souls Church at 45th and Walnut Streets and at a polling place in Westport were told by poll workers that they were not on the list of registered voters for that polling place. There also were unconfirmed reports of other precincts suffering similar problems.

The problems caused delays in what was already expected to be a busy day at the polls.

Following the money

*Obama has been leading in each of the last 170 or so national polls, but if you are like many who don’t trust polls, perhaps you can look to the gambling community to better gauge the odds of an Obama or a McCain victory.

BetUS Sportsbook posts the best odds on Senator John McCain with +650 odds (a $100 wager pays out $650) and Sportsbook.com posts the best odds for Senator Barack Obama at -950 odds , (a $950 wager pays out $100). People may lie to pollsters, but in offshore sports books real money is thrown around “" and they may actually be a better indicator that national polls.

As one better told the Lang Report,

Polls can be inaccurate. People may say what is politically correct, the questions may be leading, the pollsters may be biased. A pollster can still bill for an inaccurate poll. Bookmakers must make an accurate line or they lose “" period.

Barack Obama Nominated

Heidi Buchanan — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 23:13:06 +0000

This afternoon in a showing of unity, Barack Obama was officially nominated as the Democratic Candidate for President of the United States of America in Denver.

During the roll call, where state delegations announce their votes, New Mexico yielded their time to the Illinois delegation. After announcing themselves as the home of the “next President of the United States of America,” Mayor Daley of Chicago, yielded to the state of New York – home of Senator Hillary Clinton. In a showing of unity, Senator Hillary Clinton, after the state announced themselves, motioned to suspend the rules, count all delegate votes, and nominate Senator Barack Obama by acclamation.

With a loud cheer from the floor and no opposition, Barack Obama was nominated the Democratic Candidate for President. The Democrats, despite the bitter ending of their primaries, have a story book ending with a unified nomination on the Convention Floor. The party has been reunited for the common goal of winning the White House in November, despite the battles over the past few months.

Senator Obama will give his acceptance speech tomorrow evening at Invesco Field.