The outgoing president still has almost two more months in office, but barring anything unforeseen, it is likely that Bush will end  up as one of the stingiest presidents in recent history when it comes to giving out pardons. 

His predecessor, Bill Clinton, gave out 140 pardons in his last day of office alone, and more than 400 in total.  This pales in comparison to Franklin D.  Roosevelt, who gave out 3,687 pardons, the most ever for a U.S. President. 

Ronald Reagan gave out more than 800 pardons during his two terms.   Jimmy Carter issued 233 during his lone term. Gerald Ford issued 409 pardons, while the man who he replaced, Richard Nixon averaged 463 during each of his terms. Nixon, of course, also received one of  Ford’s 409 pardons. 

Interestingly, the only  recent president to be tighter with this presidential mercy was Bush’s father, who gave out only 77 pardons during his four years in office. 

This seems to be consistent with Bush’s tenure as Governor of Texas, where he gave out only 14 pardons, the lowest such figure for a Texas governor since the 1940s. 

(Note: I say recent history because George Washington only gave out 16 pardons, and William Henry Harrison and James Garfield, did not use pardons at all.)

So if one views pardons as a bad thing — a needless and irreversible power — Bush could be commended for showing restraint. If one views them as noble and merciful action,  Bush could be criticized as heartless. 

I imagine a case-by-case look would reveal that for most presidents some pardons seem more justified than others. Giving a second chance to a non-violent drug addict who sits in jail while his or her children grow up without a parent is one thing; giving Scooter Libby or President Nixon a pass for crimes done while serving the public is another.

(For a full list of the recent pardons, see Sachin Seth)

Timothy F. Geithner, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, will serve as Secretary of the Treasury. Lawrence H. Summers, former Secretary of the Treasury under President Clinton, will serve as Director of the National Economic Council.

Christina D. Romer will serve as Director of the Council of Economic Advisers, Melody C. Barnes will serve as Director of the Domestic Policy Council, and Heather A. Higginbottom will serve as Deputy Director of the Domestic Policy Council.

Peter Orszag, currently Director of the Congressional Budget Office, will serve as Office of Management and Budget Director, and Rob Nabors will serve as Deputy Director.

“Barack is bringing together some of the best minds in the country to make swift progress on the economic challenges we face,” said David Plouffe, Obama’s campaign manager, in a statement. “While we can’t underestimate the challenge we face, we also can’t underestimate the opportunity we have to bring the change our country needs.”

Two Clinton camp “confidants” confirmed her acceptance after she spoke with Obama for a second time in two weeks, with the intent to clarify some of his foreign policy standings in an effort to make sure the two are on the same page.  Last week’s meeting, according to one of the “confidants,” was quite general in nature.

The other source told reporters that the deal is pretty much done, however, while admitting that the alliance would most likely go through, the Obama camp has said no official acceptance has yet been made and none will be announced until after Thanksgiving

Clinton’s spokesman, Phillip Reines, told reporters that the deal is not yet final, but talks are “very much on track.”

The word comes after weeks of intense vetting and discussion, as well as efforts to ensure that if Clinton were to accept the nomination, her husband, Bill Clinton, would agree to certain conditions over his global businesses and philanthropic activities.  He complied with turning over the names and information of over 200,000 donors to the Obama camp, in an effort to ensure no conflict of interest would arise, clearing the way for his wife.

Clinton, as secretary of state, will have a very tough job ahead of her, especially after the last eight years, in which the Bush administration has strained relationships with several foreign powers.  However as First Lady, she did develop relationships with and travel to over 80 countries.  Her experience gives the department a strong background, something Obama has been criticized for lacking.

As one of the most powerful, prominent and popular democrats today, many supporters are ecstatic over the formation of this partnership.  This nomination, as opposed to a Vice-President post (which many were hoping for during the election) gives Clinton much more power on a global scale.

Basically, the advisers are trying to silence the critics who believe the two differ too greatly to be in the same administration.  Those critics are not too prominent, most people just recently referred to an Obama-Clinton ticket as the dream ticket.  I call it the 1-2 punch.

Advisers say they share many ideas, mainly regarding Iran and Iraq.  The two are also said to agree on sending additional troops to Afghanistan, peace efforts between Israel and Palestine and climate change, according to the IHT.

As most people know, Obama wants to sit down and talk with Iranian leaders. Clinton, as secretary of state, would have to do some work to prepare such a meeting.  Seems like an easy enough thing to do, except, Iran doesn’t really like Clinton.

Iran filed an official protest with the UN earlier this year over comments Clinton made on ABC, after being asked what she, as president, would do if Iran attacked Israel: “”I want the Iranians to know that if I’m the president, we will attack Iran. In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them.”

So while the two in the same administration would elate several Americans, how productive she would be in the post remains to be seen.  I for one think she’d do a great job, regardless of the Iran thing.

Bill Richardson is still a possibility, he has also encouraged talks with Iran.

It was more than four years ago that Howard Dean put an exclamation point of his sinking presidential campaign, with his now infamous “scream speech” after the New Hampshire primary in 2004. The speech featured a dejected Dean, coming off of a crippling second-place finish, screaming something along the lines of “yeeaargh” as he listed off a large chunk of the remaining states in the union that he was hoping to win.

Contrary to the ruminations of many pundits, the scream is not what did Dean in. The New Hampshire primary effectively ended his hopes for the nomination. Nonetheless, it was this speech that came to define Dean and his campaign.

But now, in the wake of an historic election which saw President-elect Barack Obama pull out a blowout win that included victories in traditionally red states, Howard Dean seems to have found redemption -amongst his party, its supporters and, in some instances, the media.

Earlier this week, as expected, Dean stepped down from his post as Chairman of the Democratic National Committee. As speculation abounds over Dean’s future and his prospects for a cabinet level position in an Obama administration, it is worth looking into his role in this presidential election and in the Democratic Party’s campaign apparatus. Dean, by many accounts, deserves credit for two major elements of the Obama campaign and the Democratic domination of Congress: the implementation of the 50-state-strategy and his role in the growth of the “Netroots” which has grown into a crucial fundraising tool for the party establishment.

The road to the chairmanship

When Dean took the chairman job in 2005 it was viewed as a fairly benign post that provided little opportunities for its holder to shape the direction of the Democratic Party in any
meaningful way. The Party was coming off an embarrassing presidential loss to President Bush, after a lackluster campaign led by John Kerry that failed to take advantage of growing anti-war sentiment that had been fostering among the country, and would eventually catapult the Democrats into power in the legislative branch during the 2006 mid-term elections.

Dean had previously attempted to harness this energy into his presidential campaign, and for a while was quite successful. Weeks before the New Hampshire primary, Dean was leading in the polls. But, in the days before the primary, his stock started plummeting dramatically. Democrats feared Dean would be unelectable in the general election and members of the democratic establishment were resistant to Dean and went on the attack.

While Dean’s liberalism was often overstated (he is actually a fiscal conservative and a staunch drug warrior), he and his supporters represented something of a shift from the centrist, pro-business wing of the party that had dominated it for much of the 1990s and early 2000s.

Channeling the words of the late Sen. Paul Wellstone, Dean would argue that he was “from the Democratic wing of the Democratic party.”

But this line of thought did not sit well with the party establishment, the most powerful of whom (Bill and Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, John Edwards, Joe Lieberman etc …) had aligned themselves with the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC), a group which was started in 1984 in reaction to Ronald Reagan’s blowout win over George McGovern in the 1984 presidential election. The basic goal of the DLC was to move the party to the right, especially on matters of economics and foreign policy, under the theory that this was the only way to curb Republican dominance of the federal government.

The DLC sharply attacked Dean, saying he was from “The McGovern-Mondale wing” of the Party, defined “principally by weakness abroad and elitist, interest group liberalism at home.”
In July of that year, Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, then- chairman of the DLC, said “The [Bush] Administration is being run by the far-right. The Democratic Party is in danger of being taken over by the far left.” They also joked about Dean’s web site following by asking: “Will he be the next dot com bust?”

“It has been one of the highest honors and privileges of my life to have served the people of Illinois in the United States Senate,” Obama said in a statement released Thursday afternoon.

Obama’s seat will remain empty until Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich appoints a successor to fill out the remaining two years of the term. An appointment is expected by the end of the year.

Indeed, it appears the criticism may be starting to accumulate. Dean Baker, one of the few economists who predicted the housing bubble, wrote the following for The UK Guardian.

Those following the meeting of President Obama’s economic advisory committee could not have been very reassured by the presence of Robert Rubin and Larry Summers, both former Treasury secretaries in the Clinton administration. Along with former Federal Reserve Board chairman Alan Greenspan, Rubin and Summers compose the high priesthood of the bubble economy. Their policy of one-sided financial deregulation is responsible for the current economic catastrophe.

[...]

While the Bush administration must take responsibility for the current crisis (they have been in power the last 8 years), the stage was set during the Clinton years. The Clinton team set the economy on the path of one-sided financial deregulation and bubble-driven growth that brought us where we are today. (The deregulation was one-sided, because they did not take away the “too big to fail” security blanket of the Wall Street big boys.)

For this reason, it is very discouraging to see top Clinton administration officials standing center stage at President Obama’s meeting on the economy. This is not change, and certainly not policies that we can believe in.

Former President Jimmy Carter, who has been spending the last few years trying to help forge a just peace in the Middle East, said Obama will “not wait for even a month after he is president to start working on the peace process, where as you know, the previous two presidents waited till the least year they were in office before they began the peace process.”

Carter was criticized by Obama during the campaign for meeting with members of Hamas, a political party that took power in the 2006 Palestinian elections.

“I think is a very important issue, I don’t have any doubt in my mind that to find peace and security and human rights for the Palestinians and also for Israel would be a major factor in reducing the threat of terror,” Carter told CNN.

Several global media outlets, including International Herald Tribune, Deutsche Welle and CBC, are running articles about what Obama’s victory means to their country and the world.

Obama knows his international expectations; he spoke with nine world leaders about the global economy and climate change soon after his victory.

For Americans, Obama’s triumph solidifies a new face and identity. For citizens around the world, his victory is a symbol of America’s renewal and rebirth.  People know the country needs a saviour after the Bush era.

Bush’s presidency changed America’s reputation among foreign countries. Before they were peacemakers, now they are despised in more places than ever.

To the public, his presidency will largely be defined by a war under false pretences, an incompetence that defies logic and now, an economic meltdown that is causing individuals and corporations alike to sink in ever deepening waters; waters Obama is expected to shallow.

Jason Rosenstiel, a dual-citizen with Israeli roots, believes Obama’s economic policy is much better than his former opponent’s.  “McCain’s idea to implement a spending freeze was crazy. Obama’s plans are much better, he can actually prevent this thing from getting worse around the globe.”

Rosenstiel also believes Obama’s relationships with world leaders will help define his presidency.  “He became friends with these leaders before even getting elected.  He made sure that if he did win, the pieces for change would be in place and that’s what will make him a great president. His ambition.”

While Obama’s win is historic, some are baffled.  How could a country that just four years ago re-elected a man so detested today, elect a man like Obama?

In all actuality, it makes sense.  The last time America went with the “safer” option, look what happened.

This time around, Americans took a chance, a chance on a candidate that is promising so much at a time when the United States has so little.

Even so, Rosenstiel has high hopes. “I truly hope he’s more than just a good president.  I hope he’s a world changer.”

Scheduled to be published in the Toronto Star next week.

Tina Fey just sticks to your mind, doesn’t she? Talented, beautiful, and politically motivating?

A recent survey shows, not necessarily surprisingly, that 10 percent of voters went to the polls Tuesday with the recent political parodies from Saturday Night Live on their minds.

A national survey released today by Roll Call, Strat@comm and Fleishman-Hillard Public Affairs also shows that two-thirds of voters viewed the SNL’s political parodies this election season.

“The ‘SNL effect’ absolutely impacted the election,” said Mike Dabadie, a FirstView researcher. “We saw that 10 percent of voters said they were influenced by the skits. At the same time, the data shows that 59 percent of those who saw the skits voted for Obama and 39 percent voted for McCain.”

The survey also found that 6 percent of respondents indicated the skits made them more likely to vote for Obama/Biden and 4 percent said the SNL skits made them more likely to vote for McCain/Palin.

The survey also shows that while voters listed the economy as a top concern, the biggest motivating factor — what drove them to vote — was the desire to restore trust in the government for future generations.

The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent

The Associated Press is reporting that Rahm Emanuel has been asked to serve as Obama’s Chief of Staff. Emanuel, who is apparently still mulling over his options, is a curious choice. While few doubt that Emanuel has the respect of his party — he is the fourth ranking House Democrat and has chaired the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) — he is not generally viewed as a change agent.

In fact, as a member of the “New Democrat” Caucus and the conservative-leaning Democratic Leadership Council (DLC), Emanuel is a pro-business Democrat who supported the War in Iraq and advocated for a run-to-the-right strategy that many think doomed the party for years. Adding to the intrigue, is the fact that Obama has made serious efforts to distance himself from this centrist coalition of Democrats, which is now infamous for its enthusiastic support for the invasion of Iraq.

In May 2003, when the DLC included Obama on its list of “100 New Democrats to Watch,” Obama responded in kind.

“I don’t know who nominated me for the DLC list of 100 rising stars, nor did I expend any effort to be included on the list…. I certainly did not view such inclusion as an endorsement on my part of the DLC platform.”

“The message was clear: The DLC needed Obama a lot more than Obama needed the DLC,” wrote Ari Berman in the Nation.

Emmanuel was also an opponent of Howard Dean’s “50-state strategy.” Implemented in 2005, the year Dean was chosen to chair the Democratic National Committee, the plan eschews the old strategy of ignoring red states to focus on more winnable contests. The strategy has been widely viewed as a major success: Democrats have made huge gains in the 2006 and 2008 elections, including in some former Republican strongholds.

Of course, given the state of the economy, many are wondering who will replace Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson. Some media reports have heard names, and if the reports are accurate, it appears Obama may pick someone whose approach to solving the current crises is not too distant from Bush’s.

CNBC reports (Bold text in original article):

Newspaper reports suggested New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine is being vetted for the position. Meanwhile we’re hearing other names on the short list include former Clinton Treasury head Larry Summers, New York Fed president Tim Geithner, former Fed Chair Paul Volker and possibly BlackRock CEO Larry Fink.

According Dylan Ratigan, it’s widely believed that Larry Summers is at the top of the list. What does that mean for the Street?

“I don’t think Larry Summers’ bag of tricks will be any different than Hank Paulsons,” says CNBC’s Steve Liesman on Fast Money. In other words Summers basically agrees with the prescriptions made by the Bush administration.

The names listed above are all friends of Wall Street, and in most cases, have direct ties to the industries that have caused the most damage to the US economy. They would all likely favor the status quo on the crises, trade policy and the other basic staples of the American finance system.

Now, Obama has earned a lot of good will from liberals, so he may be afforded some latitude from his supporters – such as unions and the liberal blogosphere. But the possibility exists that if Obama appoints a cabinet loaded with the old guard that dominated the last 30 years – and certainly both parties have supported the deregulation that is now blamed for economic collapse – some of his supporters may not be pleased.

Joe Trippi, who managed Howard Dean’s campaign in 2004 and John Edwards in 2008, made an astute observation on C-SPAN the other day when he suggested that GOP operatives knew damn well that John McCain would lose the general election, and crafted a strategy to cope with this inevitability.

The theory, Trippi explained, is that Republicans went on the attack – calling Obama a socialist, a terrorist sympathizer, an enemy of Israel and a baby killer – not to appease independents in swing states, but rather, to energize the right-wing conservative base in the hopes that they would vote GOP down the ticket, and prevent possible Democratic takeovers in hotly-contested Senate races. The race was over and they were trying to cut legislative losses, so to speak.

“They were not using swing-state language,” Trippi said.

And, it appears the strategy may have paid off. Republican Sen. Ted Stevens is up in Alaska , despite his fraud convictions last week; Sen. Norm Coleman is beating Democrat Al Franken in Minnesota (in a race that may be decided in a recount); Gordon Smith may hold on to Oregon and Saxby Chambliss may hold Georgia.

These were closes races, but a week ago Coleman, Smith and Stevens were all behind in the polls.

Make no mistake, this elections stands as a clear and unambiguous rejection of the GOP. But the sinister attacks that came from a desperate campaign, may have kept the Democrats from expanding the senate even further.

Today, an African American stands at the most powerful man in the world. It is remarkable. But it must be the beginning of something new, rather than the end of something old. The fight against racism must continue on Nov. 5.

]]> http://blastmagazine.com/the-news/2008/11/a-new-beggining/feed/ 1 http://blastmagazine.com/the-blogs/terra/2008/11/obama-elected-president/ http://blastmagazine.com/the-blogs/terra/2008/11/obama-elected-president/#comments Wed, 05 Nov 2008 04:15:56 +0000 Sachin Seth http://blastmagazine.com/the-blogs/terra/2008/11/obama-elected-president/ Obama wins!  This is history!

Various media outlets are projected an Obama victory with 297 electoral college votes and the certainty of more to come!

As a nation, the U.S. will be brought closer by this victory.  It’s truly unbelievable, an African-American president with the majority of votes in the U.S.

You offer hope to a generation who had no place to find it before you came along.  Thank you.

Congratulations to President Barack Obama from all of us at Blast Magazine.  We knew you’d do it!

That would be ending the Iraq War, Karl. And it’s 10:48 pm. I know George Bush goes to bed at 8 o’clock, but you’d figure “Bush’s Brain” stayed up a little later.

——

Meanwhile, on MSNBC, Keith Olbermann just tried ask Chuck Todd “Any way that poll showing Obama with a 22-point lead in California is wrong?” with a straight face. You could literally feel him smirking as the camera panned to Chuck.

U.S. media is pretty scared to admit it, but global networks are declaring Obama the winner.

I agree.

Even better news, Bill Bennett is still throwing in the obligatory “If Obama wins…” to the amusement of the rest of his colleagues.

Now we watch the Senate race with great interest.

This is HUGE.  Obama is the most epic battleground state in the U.S. and win a here, along with his win in Pennsylvania puts Obama very VERY close to the White House.

CNN also calls Wyoming and North Dakota for McCain.  Fox News calls New Mexico for Obama.

Obama has so far carried predominantly blue states and McCain has taken the red states. Obama, before today, had large leads in all the states called by CNN and Fox News.

McCain had big a lead in Wymoning, however polls showed Obama leading 45%-43% North Dakota before tonight.  Still, only three electoral college votes from that state.

The numbers, added from projections by various media organizations, stands at 175-119 for Obama.

No surprise, McCain headed into tonight with a seven point lead in Arkansas and an 11 point lead in West Virginia.  He also had an over 20 point lead in Alabama before today, a very red state.

McCain went into tonight with a five point lead in Georgia so that’s a good win for him.

Adding all these in, the numbers sit at 103-69 for Obama.

Losing Pennsylvania is a huge negative for the McCain camp, he hoped to carry that state.  He has spent a lot of time there recently and his advisors said he’d made a lot of ground.

He really needed it to balance out losing the smaller states.

Blue east coast states have also been called, Maryland, Illinois and Delaware among them.  McCain carries Tennessee, Oklahoma and South Carolina, no big surprises.

Check out our state-by-state results in the Terra blog and in the election section for real-time updates.

Over on Fox, they just interviewed Karl Rove, and even in his alternate universe, Obama is going to win.

Weekly Standard hack Fred Barnes also continued his assault on early voting. A few days ago, he complained that when he went to vote early, the polling station was filled with “old, poor people.” Click the link, I’m not joking. Now, he just claimed it’s actually LESS convenient to spread it out over a few weeks than to stuff everyone into the voting booth on one day. Even on Fox, no one else could figure out what he’s talking about.

It should come as no suprise that Vermont went this direction. The state. arguably the most tolerant and liberal in the nation, has a self-identified socialist in the Senate, a vibrant third party with seats in the State House, and openly supports the impeachment of Bush.

The state is known for it independent streak. 80 years ago, President Calvin Coolidge, said of the Green Mountain State, “If the spirit of liberty should vanish in other parts of the Union and support of our institutions should languish, it could all be replenished from the generous store held by the people of this brave little state of Vermont.”

There is also a curious gubernatorial race going on in the state. Incumbent Gov. Jim Douglas, a Republican, is going to beat out a Democratic challenger, Gaye Symington (speaker of the Vermont House) and progressive Anthony Pollina, who is tied for Symington in second place, with about 24 percent of the vote, according to recent polls.

Interestingly, Douglas will win, but may not be re-elected right away. If he wins with less than 50 percent of the vote, the Legislature (which is dominated by Democrats) gets to choose the governor by secret ballot. I think they would likely choose Douglas, who will win with a double-digit lead, but I imagine the Douglas campaign is hoping they never have to find out.

Everyone on CNN is covertly saying the election is over, lavishing praise on Obama. Republican Bill Bennett has even been giving him props, but he precedes every comment “This is not over.” But he has to say it so much that he’s now throwing in death metaphors to get his point across. “Not to beat a dead horse, but…this is not over.” Five minutes later, he got a little more disturbing, “Again, the body is not yet cold, BUT…” Here’s hoping he makes increasingly macabre McCain autopsy jokes as the night wears on…

CNN also just unveiled their new hologram technology, which LITERALLY looks like Princess Leia and Obi Wan Kanobi’s image coming out of R2D2. The hologramed reporters appear right next to Wolf Blitzer in the Situation Room even though they are located around the country. Wolf claims he will be beaming correspondents in all night…

More to come..

McConnell has a “narrow advantage” in the race, but if he manages to lose, it will be a huge blow to Republicans and perhaps an ominous sign of the long night ahead.

6:20 p.m.:  The New York Times is reporting that of the early ballots counted so far in Kentucky, 60% are for McCain.  Of the early ballots counted in New Hampshire, 67% are for Obama.

6:30 p.m.:  CNN reports McCain’s early lead in Kentucky stands, Obama up in Indiana with 55% of early vote

6:40 p.m.:  CNN reports Obama’s lead in Indiana slips, he has 51% now of early returns.  In Kentucky, McCain’s lead stretches with 68% of the early ballots in his favor.  Not surprising, Kentucky is a red state and Indiana is a tossup.

6:50 p.m.:  Leads hold in both states.  Many polls close at 7 p.m., including Florida and Virginia, to routinely red states that are, in this election, battlegrounds.  A win in these states would signal a win for Obama.

7:00 p.m.: WHOA.  McCain’s lead in Kentucky dwindles, he has just 51% of the returns in his favor now.  Obama’s now at 50% to McCain’s 48% in Indiana.

7:03:  CNN projects Obama will carry Vermont, and McCain will carry Kentucky.  So it’s 8-3 for McCain.

7:15: McCain leading Virginia, 55%-44% very early.  Obama ahead by one point in Indiana.  Virginia is very important, a republican state that has been leaning democrat during campaigning.  CNN just beamed Jessica Yelin into the Situation Room, Star Wars style.  McCain leading in Florida, by seven points.

7:28:  A few more polls about to close.  McCain still carrying Virginia, now by 12 points in very early reports.  McCain takes control of Indiana by 5 points, however many democratic counties have yet to be counted.  Florida now being held by Obama 48%-34%, weird numbers. McCain carrying Georgia with early reports calling 70% in his favor.  No surprise.

7:38: North Carolina, 51%-49% for Obama.  Very early but if that holds on, very big victory.  Florida numbers fixed, Obama up 57-43, that’s HUGE, but only 2% of precincts reporting so far.  Indiana, same deal as before, 51%-48% with 20% of precincts in.  Popular vote, 51%-48% for Obama.

7:50: First polls in Michigan, Missouri and Pennsylvania going to close at 8, as well as more polls in Florida and other states.  Right now, leads are pretty much the same a they were at 7:38, however in North caronlina Obama is now up by almost 20%.  Also now, in Virginia, McCain up by 15%.

7:56: South Carolina called for John McCain.  CBS and Fox News calling West Virginia for McCain as well.

8:00:  Projections: Obama: Illinois, Connecticut, Maryland, New Jersey, Maine (3 of 4 electoral votes), D.C., Delaware and Massachusetts, NBC adding Pennsylvania and New Hampshire to that list.

McCain: Oklahoma and Tennessee

103-34 for Obama.

8:10: Losing Penn. is a big negative McCain, he really needed to win that state and he thought he’d made significant ground there.  Still 51-48 in Indiana for McCain.

8:20: Obama up in Florida by seven points.  Crazy.  McCain holding small lead in Indiana.  Obama leading in North Carolina by near 20% and in Ohio by 15%.  Ohio is HUGE.  McCain holding lead in Virginia, up by 56%.

8:30: Obama so far winning democrat states, McCain carrying the republican ones.  Obama’s lead in North Carolina, Florida and Ohio stands.  McCain’s in Virginia and Indiana also stands.  Keep an eye on Indiana.

8:50: Obama holding lead in Florida (now three points) and in North Carolina. A commanding lead in Ohio.  McCain holding on to Indiana, and now has leads in Michigan and Missouri, the former by seven points and the latter by 17 points.  McCain holding on to Virginia as well by nine points.  He needs that after losing Penn.

9:15:  Obama winning in North Carolina and Ohio still as well as in Florida by three points.  McCain holds leads in Virginia, Colorado, Indiana and Missouri.

9:30:  OHIO HAS BEEN CALLED FOR OBAMA.  A huge victory.  Colorado has tipped Obama’s way, he has a five point lead there.  His small Florida lead is holding up as well.  McCain’s leads in Indiana, Missouri, and Virginia are holding up.

9:55: Obama leading in Colorado, Florida and North Carolina.  McCain in Indiana (1 point) Missouri and Virginia.

10:00:  Seriously contemplating whether updating this is even necessary.  You know it, I know it.  Obama’s taking this.  You can’t beat Ohio or the Redskins.

10:15: Obama still carrying Colorado, by a higher margin now.  Florida still by three points.  Virginia has moved over to the Obama side, he has a one point lead now.  McCain has Indiana still and Missouri.  Does it matter?

10:17: Popular vote: 50%-49% for Obama.  Over 50 million people have cast votes!

10:35: CNN keeps talking about Obama in the White House, but won’t declare him the winner.  If you don’t want to seem biased, don’t act it. Obama leading in Colorado, Florida and Virginia.  McCain has a 1 point lead in Indiana.  The race is deadlocked in North Carolina.

10:40: CBC declares Barack Obama the victor

11:00:  Congratulations to President Barack Obama!

11:20: ABC calls Florida for Obama.  It’s at 323 now.

11:25: AP calls Colorado and Nevada for Obama.  He’s sitting pretty with 338.

11:35: Waiting for Indiana and North Carolina to be called

12:20: IF you didn’t just watch that speech, watch it.  It was President Barack Obama’s best speech to date.  Tears flowed.  Oprah and Rev. Jesse Jackson cried.  A truly historical moment, and a symbol of how far this country has come.

North Carolina and Missouri still too close to call, Indiana been called for Obama, Montana called for McCain.

Missouri called for McCain, North Carolina still too close

NY Times calls North Carolina for Obama

Final count: 364-174.

Despite the United States recent economic woes, there is no doubt amongst serious observers that the country is still, by far the most powerful nation in the world. The United States military budget – which, I think it is fair to say, gets quite a bit of use – is astronomical. The U.S. accounts almost half of the world’s military spending, with the FY 2009 budget allocating more than $650 billion. To put this in perspective, the next highest spender is the United Kingdom with just over $50 billion. And the U.S. figures do not count the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan which are paid for with supplemental bills and have cost the nation hundreds of billions more over the last five years.

Further, the world economy, for better or worse (worse is the popular answer in 2008), is directly dependent on the U.S economy. Even though China, for example, continues to grow, they are only able to do so by sending 80 percent of their exports to the U.S. Now, as American consumers are becoming thrifty, or broke (or both), Chinese growth is in trouble.

Russia – China’s partner in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which many see as a blossoming counter to the US and NATO – is now losing out on all the revenues that they were getting from $147 barrels of oil. And this drop in oil occurred, at least in part, due to the massive deflation that has occurred since the US economy really hit the skids in September. Venezuela and Iran, two other oil-rich nations with hostile relations with the U.S, are facing the same problems as oil prices go down.

So why is this relevant to the 2008 election? It is a reminder of how important this election, and American policy in general, is to other parts of the world.

In Israel, for example, the right has expressed fears over an Obama presidency. While Obama has said all of the right things, and spoke in front of AIPAC when he finally won the primary, some in Israel are not sure he will be 1) as aggressive on Iran as a McCain or Bush Administration or 2) as willing to continue America’s unconditional (and totally unique) package in aid, which is at $3 billion, the most in the world. This is why the right started singing the “Obama-is-anti-Israel” tune when McCain fell sharply behind (as did Hillary Clinton when she was gasping for anything at the tail end of the divisive primary, which gives you a sense of how predictably low politicians can go when in trouble).

It is a fairly empty tale. Obama has toed the Party line with Israel, pledging continued and increased aid, and insisting that Iran poses a grave threat, despite the fact that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has said the opposite.

Nonetheless, this election is watched with great interest from the Israeli right. To follow the coverage in Israel, I recommend, Haaretz, which is widely viewed as the “New York Times of Israel.”

Another country that must be watching with watchful eyes in Pakistan, especially given Obama’s expressed a willingness to bomb the country (which President Bush actually did recently).

Interestingly, Iraqis and U.S. soldiers may have less at stake that one might think. While Obama ran in the primary with anti-war rhetoric , his staff has acknowledged to the Wall Street Journal that he will leave around 35 – 45 thousands troops in the country. Given that a similar draw down is likely under a McCain Administration (though the exact timeline could vary), it appears that the War in Iraq will continue in a lesser fashion, no matter who wins. Still, if anyone wants to read an English language Iraqi newspaper, visit Azzaman in English.

Iranians, too, must be watching with great interest. While both McCain and Obama are willing to talk tough on Iran, Obama has a far more moderate (supported by many Republicans from the Bush I days, such as James Baker and Collin Powell) and reasonable stance on engaging in diplomacy. To read Iranian media visit Press TV and the Islamic Republic News Agency (both state-owned, for what its worth).

And of course, every country has a stake in the U.S. economy. As I listed above, the ramifications of the economic crisis are indeed global, and countries have been scrambling with bailout and stimulus packages, request for aid from the (US controlled) International Monetary Fund and the nationalizing of some banks.

Here, world public opinion is clear: Obama is the favorite for most of the world, which has grown deeply skeptical of U.S. economic policies, and gives most of the blame to Republicans.

Some other foreign news outlets:

The Daily Star (Lebanon)

Russia Today (Russia)

The Independent (United Kingdom)

Dar al Hayet (Saudi Arabia )

]]> http://blastmagazine.com/the-news/2008/11/the-world-is-watching/feed/ 0 http://blastmagazine.com/the-news/2008/11/early-musings/ http://blastmagazine.com/the-news/2008/11/early-musings/#comments Tue, 04 Nov 2008 20:48:56 +0000 Michael Corcoran http://blastmagazine.com/?p=5205 Long lines reported already

*Reports of painfully long lines are already coming in. With record turnout expected, long lines are inevitable. But The New York Times is reporting of excessively long lines in Virginia and Pennsylvania.

From the Times:

By noon on Tuesday some precincts in Chester County, Pa., were reporting that up to half of their registered voters had already cast ballots, said Agnes L. O’Toole, the county’s deputy director of voter services. She said that voters waited in lines that lasted up to two hours. “This is above and beyond an anomaly,” Ms. O’Toole said. “Our phones are off the wall.”

Also, The Times reported that even lines for early voting were excessively long in places like Kansas City and Atlanta yesterday. And things have not gotten better in KC today, according to the Associated Press.

Voters in some Kansas City precincts had to spend extra time in already long lines this morning because poll workers were given the wrong voter registration books.

Voters at All Souls Church at 45th and Walnut Streets and at a polling place in Westport were told by poll workers that they were not on the list of registered voters for that polling place. There also were unconfirmed reports of other precincts suffering similar problems.

The problems caused delays in what was already expected to be a busy day at the polls.

Following the money

*Obama has been leading in each of the last 170 or so national polls, but if you are like many who don’t trust polls, perhaps you can look to the gambling community to better gauge the odds of an Obama or a McCain victory.

BetUS Sportsbook posts the best odds on Senator John McCain with +650 odds (a $100 wager pays out $650) and Sportsbook.com posts the best odds for Senator Barack Obama at -950 odds , (a $950 wager pays out $100). People may lie to pollsters, but in offshore sports books real money is thrown around – and they may actually be a better indicator that national polls.

As one better told the Lang Report,

Polls can be inaccurate. People may say what is politically correct, the questions may be leading, the pollsters may be biased. A pollster can still bill for an inaccurate poll. Bookmakers must make an accurate line or they lose — period.

]]> http://blastmagazine.com/the-news/2008/11/early-musings/feed/ 0 http://blastmagazine.com/the-news/2008/11/tight-race-for-governor-shaping-up-in-washington/ http://blastmagazine.com/the-news/2008/11/tight-race-for-governor-shaping-up-in-washington/#comments Tue, 04 Nov 2008 20:26:54 +0000 Bradley Ouellette http://blastmagazine.com/?p=5199 REDMOND, Wash. — Unlike most of the rest of the country, Washington state, the party lines aren’t so clear, and the presidential race is only one of the things on people’s minds.

The election here is focused mostly on who will be the next governor. The last election came down to a matter of 133 votes, after 3 recounts and a couple bags of missing ballots showing up mysteriously at the last minute.

The race is a rematch between Democrat Chris Gregoire and Republican challenger Dino Rossi.

First term Governor Gregoire served three terms as state attorney general, starting in 1992. Rossi served in the state senate for seven years.

The real issues under debate are about who will do a better job in office, not who will do it the “right” way. The candidates both claim they will lower taxes and keep a balanced budget. Gregoire claims she has money set aside for this, Rossi claims he can spend the budget better. Both of the candidates are claiming to want to fix roads here in the Seattle area.

Seattle has problems with roads. There is a lake between the city of Seattle, and the”East Side.” There are only two bridges to get across. The Route 90 bridge is in decent condition, but the 520 seems like it could fall apart at any time.

We also have a stretch of road in Seattle similar to the old 93 going above Boston. Unlike Boston though, Seattle has Earthquakes. The last one damaged this road and everyone believes it won’t last another one.

So the big question is who can relieve congestion on the roads, and fix the broken roads. Who will keep taxes at a minimum to accomplish all this.

While the rest of the nation is being inundated with ads for McCain or Obama, Washington is mostly getting ads for or against Gregoire and Rossi. If you turn TV on for 10 minutes you will see at least one ad for and against each candidate. It also gets interesting when you have, say, one ad against Rossi saying he opposes stem cell research followed by one from Rossi saying he supports stem cell research.

With the difference last time being just 150 voters it’s anyone’s guess who will win this time around.

Massachusetts native and computer engineer Bradley Ouellette recently relocated to Washington.

Chris Shays, 63, a veteran Fairfield County Republican is facing down the younger James Himes, 42, a feisty Democrat who may ride the Democratic tidal wave to Washington tonight.

The early buzz coming out of Connecticut is that Shays has the fight of his life on his hands.

Shays served in the Connecticut House from 1974 to 1987. He was elected to the U.S. House in an August 1987 special election.

Himes was born in Peru and arrived in the US at age 10. He’s a Harvard graduate and a Rhodes Scholar. He is a former vice president of Goldman Sachs and now vice president of Enterprise Foundation, a non-profit community affordable housing organization.

I have long been deeply interested in public affairs, and this election is no exception. I have previously been published in The Boston Globe, The Nation, AlterNet, Common Dreams, Campus Progress and elsewhere.

I hope to provide running updates with news, commentary and such as voting continues and the results come in. I will try to stay on top of developments with the presidential race, voter suppression, the senate races and the occasional state or local race, if they seem noteworthy enough. And other odds and ends will be covered as they come up.

While many are expecting an Obama victory to be declared fairly early, the fate of several senate seats, however, could go well into the night. And some of the more intriguing races are indeed there, where Republican incumbents such as Norm Coleman , of Minnesota, and Ted Stevens (who was convicted of seven felonies last week), of Alaska, are fighting for their political lives.

A decent election guide (with an open pro-Democrat viewpoint) can be found here. A look at television options can be found here.

Feel free to drop a line, debate a point or contact me for any other reason at m.corcoran(at)yahoo.com. Check back often for updates.

It was busy in the little town of Sharon, 25 miles south of Boston and 25 miles north of Providence. Everyone in town voted at the high school, adding to the parking and crowding fun.

It’s best to escape from work early or to try to go at an off peak time. It was still busy, but I got right in and out with no delay.

But I didn’t get an “I voted today” sticker. Bummer. Also, no exit polling was being done around noon time here in Sharon.

Massachusetts has three big ballot questions to consider. Question 1 eliminates the state income tax. Question 2 decriminalizes under an ounce of marijuana and replaces criminal penalties with a civil fine, and Question 3 would make dog racing illegal in the state.

And that might be the only real reason why this election will not be called earlier than a third grader’s bedtime. As Ben Smith of Politico puts it:

The polls close at 7:00 Eastern in Virginia, Indiana, Georgia, and South Carolina, and anything other than a clean McCain sweep of those states likely means a short night.

Chuck Todd has a comprehensive schedule by state.

And Jonathan Martin writes up the counties to watch.

Here are all of the polls released yesterday, the last day that the major polling firms collected data. Obama’s aggragate average is approaching 52%, but I believe these polls under report the youth vote because of they generally don’t call cell phones, and we will probably see a disproportionate amount of the African-American vote judging by the early vote counts in many states.

We will have to look out for the Bradley Effect, which may or may not be a myth. Even if it’s true, I have a feeling it might be off se by the Reverse Bradley Effect. Paraphrasing Bill Maher, the Reverse Bradley Effect theorizes the pseudo racists are telling their buddies down at the Moose Lodge they’re voting for McCain, but when they get in the voting booth they might start thinking, “Hmm, well my kids teeth are falling out… and Obama is the only one that will give me health care. Maybe I will vote for the black guy.”

As far as the electoral college, Obama should get 338+ electoral votes, putting him well over the 270 needed to win. He will almost definitely flip Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, and Iowa from Red States to Blue, and I think he squeak out Ohio, Florida and North Carolina, as well. Missouri and Indiana will be tough but if either fall for Obama, it will be over by 9 o’clock.

If McCain has any chance, he absolutely needs Pennsylvania. The east coast bellweather state is one of the first to close their polls, so if it is called early for Obama, it will be a good indicater of how the night could turn out. If Obama’s lead is 8 to 10 points and its over shortly after the polls close, then there will be no need to sweat. Barack Obama will be the President Elect. If we are still wondering who won Pennsylvania after a few hours, it might be a long night.

Check out CNN’s interactive map and make you’re own predictions.

For 70 years, the Redskins have been cosmically aligned with American voters.

Since 1936, every time the Redskins lose their last game before election day, the party that won the popular vote in the previous election loses.

If the ‘Skins win, the party the majority of Americans backed last election wins.

Last night, the Redskins lost 23-6.

But in this regard, the Redskins are undefeated, a perfect 17-0.

Let’s see if they get that 18th win tonight.

Here’s our gameplan:

Sachin Seth will man the news desk. One of our top newsmen, he will be constantly updating you throughout the night with breaking news, results, and key information.

Heidi Buchanan, our Washington reporter, will be providing top analysis. She’ll talk about what certain results from certain states mean and tell you exactly what’s going on as it happens!

Trevor Timm is in New York and will be our man on the street. He will provide color commentary, reaction, and analysis.

Michael Corcoran will be offering commentary and news reporting. His work has appeared in The Nation and The Boston Globe’s “Thinking Politics” blog.

Bradley Ouellette is in Washington State and will provide a feature on the polling in that state.

We’ll be filing stories, photos and analysis all day and all night, so just keep hitting refresh and don’t forget to comment!

Two of the most notable campaigns in history come to an end and one of the most historic elections begins.

Will Obama’s seven-point lead in the polls hold up?  Will McCain make an historic comeback?

Make sure to check in with Blast’s election coverage tomorrow night in our new News section.  It’ll be full of analysis and commentary you won’t find anywhere else!  We’ll also be updating as states are called throughout the night.

So go out and vote America!  Do your part!  Make history!